2015 Wide Receivers Per Route Run Efficiency

092715-nfl-falcons-julio-jones-pi-ch-vresize-1200-675-high-93
foxsports.com

As I was cleaning up the data for this post, I noticed something. In this post here on per target wide receiver efficiency in 2015, I expressed caution for the actual predictability of how many points a receiver scores on a per target basis. While the data is fun to look at, the actual amount of targets the average wide receiver sees per game (say 7 or 8) is really pretty low. Once you get out from behind the target monsters (like Julio Jones), it gets small sample size-y and inherently loses some of it’s value.

So, here’s something to think about (and for me to do more research on): but the r-squared (measures of how close the data are to a regression line; 0 equals no correlation, +/- 1 equals perfect correlation) for the relationship between actual fantasy points scored and fantasy points per target was a weak 0.266. The relationship between actual fantasy points scored and routes run? 0.602.

All of this sort of makes sense intuitively, but this summer I plan on doing a lot more research on what types of efficiency metrics are actionable on a week-to-week basis. For now, here are the top-85 scorers from 2015. Wide receivers must have run at least 231 routes on the season to qualify. (Thanks to PFF for the routes run data).

Not a ton of surprises, but Devin Funchess finished… 16th:

Rk Name FPs/RR
1  Julio Jones 0.603
2  Antonio Brown 0.598
3  Steve L. Smith 0.567
4  Alshon Jeffery 0.565
5  Sammy Watkins 0.561
6  Odell Beckham Jr. 0.534
7  Brandon Marshall 0.534
8  Doug Baldwin 0.520
9  Larry Fitzgerald 0.514
10  A.J. Green 0.512
11  Julian Edelman 0.504
12  DeAndre Hopkins 0.496
13  Keenan Allen 0.488
14  Jeremy Maclin 0.484
15  Allen Robinson 0.468
16  Devin Funchess 0.465
17  Demaryius Thomas 0.457
18  Ted Ginn 0.453
19  Eric Decker 0.450
20  Martavis Bryant 0.442
21  Jarvis Landry 0.438
22  Jerricho Cotchery 0.425
23  Michael Floyd 0.421
24  Rishard Matthews 0.419
25  Mike Evans 0.418
26  Emmanuel Sanders 0.418
27  John Brown 0.411
28  Michael Crabtree 0.408
29  Jordan Matthews 0.405
30  Calvin Johnson 0.402
31  Brandin Cooks 0.401
32  Allen Hurns 0.392
33  Stefon Diggs 0.372
34  Amari Cooper 0.371
35  Pierre Garcon 0.368
36  Vincent Jackson 0.368
37  Willie Snead 0.363
38  Tyler Lockett 0.362
39  Danny Amendola 0.356
40  Kendall Wright 0.352
41  Anquan Boldin 0.344
42  T.Y. Hilton 0.340
43  Kamar Aiken 0.340
44  Marvin Jones 0.334
45  Kenny Britt 0.333
46  Cole Beasley 0.332
47  Travis Benjamin 0.332
48  Donte Moncrief 0.326
49  Golden Tate 0.321
50  Markus Wheaton 0.320
51  Marques Colston 0.312
52  Tavon Austin 0.312
53  Randall Cobb 0.311
54  Brian Hartline 0.306
55  Rueben Randle 0.303
56  Dez Bryant 0.303
57  Terrance Williams 0.302
58  Steve Johnson 0.301
59  Jermaine Kearse 0.300
60  Brandon Coleman 0.298
61  James Jones 0.296
62  Nate Washington 0.289
63  Jamison Crowder 0.287
64  Cecil Shorts 0.285
65  Dorial Green-Beckham 0.273
66  Robert Woods 0.272
67  Seth Roberts 0.260
68  Chris Hogan 0.250
69  Dwayne Harris 0.248
70  Andre Johnson 0.247
71  Eddie Royal 0.246
72  Quinton Patton 0.243
73  Torrey Smith 0.242
74  Albert Wilson 0.237
75  Dontrelle Inman 0.234
76  Davante Adams 0.227
77  Kenny Stills 0.216
78  Brandon LaFell 0.215
79  Mike Wallace 0.212
80  Chris Givens 0.211
81  Harry Douglas 0.206
82  Malcom Floyd 0.197
83  Taylor Gabriel 0.190
84  Mohamed Sanu 0.179
85  Roddy White 0.170
Advertisements

One thought on “2015 Wide Receivers Per Route Run Efficiency

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s